Is India the next epicentre of COVID-19?

Coronavirus is spreading across nations with R0 (pronounced as R-naught) greater than 2 and taking lives of mostly people with pre-conditions. This virus began its journey from Wuhan, China where it was first reported in month of Oct-Nov in local Chinese media as unknown virus causing fever, cough, respiratory problems leading to sudden deaths. It was then WHO in January’2020 confirmed of Coronavirus disease and alerted all nations to take precautionary measures to contain this virus. We all know how WHO misreported that this virus does not transmit human to human which was one of the reason many governments bodies including USA and europeans did not paid much heed to this virus and now we all know how this misreporting was one of cause of havoc in Spain, France, UK, Italy and USA.

We can see that if we exclude USA where cases have reached 1,669,662 and counting, cases in Brazil, Russia and European Countries are on rise. WHO reported epicentre of this virus as below:

  • Wuhan, China
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • USA
  • UK
  • Brazil

Which is next country to be epicentre for this virus?

To answer this question, let us dig into COVID-19 data source from WHO on 24th May. For a country to be epicentre, we have taken into account below parameters:

  • Total Cases
  • Total Active Cases
  • Total Recovered Cases
  • Total Deaths
  • Total Cases per 1 million population
  • Total Tests per 1 million population
  • Recovery Rate
  • Death Rate

Also we applied a condition that total cases should be greater than 1 lac in a country. This gives us 12 countries among 216 countries where this virus has spread.

We will measure correlation among these 12 countries and see how India matches in above 8 parameters.

Result: Correlation coefficient in % of India is highest with (Brazil 99.90%), followed by (France, 98.49%) and then (Peru, 98.41%)

How India is performing with respect to other countries?

Can we conclude India will be next epicentre after Brazil from this data? Not exactly, let’s see more data to strengthen our claims. By closely looking at recovery rate and death rate, India is almost performing on lines of Brazil and Peru but if we see number of tests per million population, India(2135) almost matches with Brazil(3461) than Peru(23946).

Recovery Rate and Death Rate by Country

After 4 consecutive lockdowns in India, number of cases has been contained considering India is home to 1.37 billion people. But with things becoming clear on nature of coronavirus that it summer heat of 45-50 degree does not impact its spread and also there is special Indian Immunity which can prevent its spread as we see comparable recovery rate with respect to other countries. Virus spread in India will cause more havoc than any other country as isolation and social distancing is tough to be implemented in India as its culture is built on top of social fabric and strong family values and systems.

Relaxations in lockdown, opening up of transportation, and public movement will be cause for more spread and it will inch us closer to be next epicentre announcement by WHO.

Get total number of cases and deaths in top 12 countries –

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